Almere City 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 13 Apr 2024

Almere City
2-3 HT 1-2
Sparta Rotterdam
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.4
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.49
6+ Goals
10%
13.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.4 — our 28% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.93
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
12%
5.82
X/2
9%
5.37
X/X
12%
4.6
2/1
8%
29.5
2/2
17%
3.51
2/X
7%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
36%
+2.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.1pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.4pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almere City v Sparta Rotterdam — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 40%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +25%
1.16/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.37
+10% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / +45%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
291 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 321 · 75%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
20.5 Crosses 17.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4

Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
0.94 xG 2.17
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 7
262 Passes 299
70% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 27
14 Crosses 29
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL
15.03.2019 Almere City Almere City 1-3 HT 1-1 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL2
07.12.2018 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 6-1 HT 2-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
14.03.2016 Almere City Almere City 1-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL2
06.11.2015 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 3-2 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
11.04.2015 Almere City Almere City 3-2 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL2

Almere City 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
2-3
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.15 xG 1.49
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 6
260 Passes 274
71% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Rotterdam nicked a narrow win over Almere City 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Sparta Rotterdam found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Almere City had 48% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 52%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.15 to 1.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Almere City and 2.50 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Almere City 2-3 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a Almere City win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Almere City 38%, draw 27%, Sparta Rotterdam 34%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Almere City) ✗ Under 2.5
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