Merida AD 1-0 Barakaldo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 30 Aug 2025

Merida AD
1-0 HT 0-0
Barakaldo
📅30/08/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
Spain - 2nd Division B – 2025/2026

Merida AD vs Barakaldo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.96
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.43
2-3 Goals
41%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
4.27
6+ Goals
8%
22.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
47%
+1.0pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.7pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.7pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Merida AD v Barakaldo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Merida AD EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Barakaldo EU Bookmakers 29%
+9% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -6%
1.56/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.23
+13% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
272 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2

Merida AD 1-0 Barakaldo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Merida AD
1-0
AWAY Barakaldo
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Merida AD vs Barakaldo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Merida AD nicked a narrow win over Barakaldo 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Merida AD as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Merida AD had 49% of the ball to Barakaldo's 51%, shots finished 15-6.

What was the final score of Merida AD vs Barakaldo?

Merida AD 1-0 Barakaldo in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Merida AD vs Barakaldo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Merida AD win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Merida AD 48%, draw 25%, Barakaldo 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Merida AD), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Merida AD) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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