Smorgon 0-1 ML Vitebsk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belarus - Premier League, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
12%
7.18
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
67%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.18
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
24%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
12.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 27% vs market 24.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
14%
1/X
6%
X/1
4%
X/2
12%
X/X
7%
2/1
3%
2/2
41%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
12%
Home Win
11%
+1.1pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.4pp
67%
Away Win
70%
-3.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.1pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Smorgon EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY ML Vitebsk EU Bookmakers 75%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
0.64/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.55/0.25
-8% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
197 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 524 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Smorgon
0W-0D-1L
AWAY ML Vitebsk
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 12
1 Yellow Cards 1
21.04.2025 ML Vitebsk ML Vitebsk 3-1 HT 1-0 Smorgon Smorgon BLR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Smorgon
0-1
AWAY ML Vitebsk
57% Ball Possession 43%
11 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
POST-MATCH Smorgon vs ML Vitebsk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ML Vitebsk squeezed past Smorgon 1-0 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had ML Vitebsk as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Smorgon had 57% of the ball to ML Vitebsk's 43%, shots finished 11-5.

What was the final score of Smorgon vs ML Vitebsk?

Smorgon 0-1 ML Vitebsk in the Belarus - Premier League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Smorgon vs ML Vitebsk?

Before kick-off our model rated an ML Vitebsk win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Smorgon 12%, draw 21%, ML Vitebsk 67%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ML Vitebsk), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ML Vitebsk) ✓ BTTS No
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