Kyoto Sanga 5-0 Fagiano Okayama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.66
6+ Goals
8%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.93 — our 33% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.2
X/1
15%
4.58
X/2
12%
7.25
X/X
13%
4.48
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
13%
5.56
2/X
5%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.5pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.9pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.6pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 30%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.37/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.25
+10% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -29% / +60%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
309 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 78%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
19.4 Crosses 18.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kyoto Sanga
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.95 xG 1.16
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
378 Passes 134
74% Pass Accuracy 54%
19 Box Touches 14
22 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
15.02.2025 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 2-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
20.11.2021 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 0-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
26.06.2021 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-0 HT 1-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
04.11.2020 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
29.07.2020 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
08.09.2019 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 3-0 HT 2-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kyoto Sanga
5-0
AWAY Fagiano Okayama
2.33 xG 0.57
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 5
281 Passes 258
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
26 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Kyoto Sanga vs Fagiano Okayama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga swept aside Fagiano Okayama 5-0. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Kyoto Sanga as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kyoto Sanga had 50% of the ball to Fagiano Okayama's 50%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.33 to 0.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Kyoto Sanga and 1.17 for Fagiano Okayama.

What was the final score of Kyoto Sanga vs Fagiano Okayama?

Kyoto Sanga 5-0 Fagiano Okayama in the Japan - J1 League on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kyoto Sanga vs Fagiano Okayama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kyoto Sanga win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Kyoto Sanga 43%, draw 26%, Fagiano Okayama 31%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kyoto Sanga), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kyoto Sanga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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