Norrby IF 2-1 Tvaaker — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - 1st Division, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.02
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.8
Over
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No Pick
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2-3
38%
4-5
23%
6+
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-4.8pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.1pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.9pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Norrby IF EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Tvaaker EU Bookmakers 31%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +20%
1.99/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.36
+27% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +18%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Norrby IF
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Tvaaker
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.05.2024 Tvaaker Tvaaker 3-0 HT 1-0 Norrby IF Norrby IF İSÇ3
09.09.2023 Tvaaker Tvaaker 1-2 HT 1-1 Norrby IF Norrby IF İSÇ3
10.06.2023 Norrby IF Norrby IF 2-3 HT 2-1 Tvaaker Tvaaker İSÇ3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Norrby IF
2-1
AWAY Tvaaker
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 7
12 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Norrby IF vs Tvaaker
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Norrby IF edged past Tvaaker 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Norrby IF as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Norrby IF had 48% of the ball to Tvaaker's 52%, shots finished 17-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Tvaaker led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Norrby IF and 2.33 for Tvaaker.

What was the final score of Norrby IF vs Tvaaker?

Norrby IF 2-1 Tvaaker in the Sweden - 1st Division on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Norrby IF vs Tvaaker?

Before kick-off our model rated a Norrby IF win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Norrby IF 41%, draw 31%, Tvaaker 28%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Norrby IF) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Norrby IF) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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