Villarreal 3-1 Las Palmas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 30 Sep 2024

Villarreal
3-1 HT 1-0
Las Palmas
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Villarreal vs Las Palmas Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.19
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.43
Over 2.5
59%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.61
No
41%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.29
2-3 Goals
37%
1.98
4-5 Goals
26%
2.69
6+ Goals
18%
6.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.85
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.15
X/1
17%
3.93
X/2
6%
11.7
X/X
9%
6.89
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
19.65
2/2
12%
8.11
2/X
7%
16.45
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.65 — our 11% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.3pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.4pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+4.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.5pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+1.2pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Villarreal v Las Palmas — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 21%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -1%
1.97/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.64
+9% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 81%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
17.9 Crosses 16.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9

Villarreal vs Las Palmas Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Las Palmas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
2.07 xG 0.98
45% Ball Possession 55%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
348 Passes 442
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.01.2024 Las Palmas Las Palmas 3-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
08.10.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
11.03.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
22.10.2017 Villarreal Villarreal 4-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
17.03.2017 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
23.10.2016 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1

Villarreal 3-1 Las Palmas — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
3-1
AWAY Las Palmas
2.79 xG 0.86
42% Ball Possession 58%
20 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 2
385 Passes 566
87% Pass Accuracy 91%
42 Box Touches 12
22 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Las Palmas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal saw off Las Palmas 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Villarreal had 42% of the ball to Las Palmas's 58%, shots finished 20-7, expected goals 2.79 to 0.86.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Villarreal and 1.17 for Las Palmas.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Las Palmas?

Villarreal 3-1 Las Palmas in the Spain - Primera Liga on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Las Palmas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 53%, draw 24%, Las Palmas 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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