Las Palmas 3-0 Villarreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 13 Jan 2024

📅13/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.97
Over 2.5
49%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.63
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
23%
3.35
6+ Goals
12%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 28% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.6
1/2
7%
28.0
1/X
8%
12.5
X/1
15%
5.58
X/2
14%
5.69
X/X
10%
4.67
2/1
9%
27.5
2/2
12%
3.71
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+5.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-2.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Las Palmas EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal EU Bookmakers 39%
+8% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -2%
1.37/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.34
+7% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
24.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
16.3 Crosses 13.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Las Palmas
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Villarreal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.05 xG 2.09
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
429 Passes 377
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.10.2023 Villarreal Villarreal 1-2 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
11.03.2018 Las Palmas Las Palmas 0-2 HT 0-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
22.10.2017 Villarreal Villarreal 4-0 HT 0-0 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
17.03.2017 Las Palmas Las Palmas 1-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
23.10.2016 Villarreal Villarreal 2-1 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
05.03.2016 Villarreal Villarreal 0-1 HT 0-1 Las Palmas Las Palmas İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Las Palmas
3-0
AWAY Villarreal
0.78 xG 2.01
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
468 Passes 352
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 31
9 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Las Palmas vs Villarreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Las Palmas ran out comfortable winners over Villarreal 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Las Palmas as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Las Palmas had 56% of the ball to Villarreal's 44%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.78 to 2.01 — the balance of chances actually favoured Villarreal.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Las Palmas and 1.50 for Villarreal.

What was the final score of Las Palmas vs Villarreal?

Las Palmas 3-0 Villarreal in the Spain - Primera Liga on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Las Palmas vs Villarreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Las Palmas win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Las Palmas 43%, draw 24%, Villarreal 33%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Las Palmas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Las Palmas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
13 Jan 2024
18:15 Mallorca vs Celta Vigo Analysis →
20:30 Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Analysis →
23:00 Real Betis vs Granada Analysis →