Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 13 Jan 2024

Athletic Bilbao
2-1 HT 2-0
Real Sociedad
📅13/01/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
29%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.09
No
63%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
18%
5.5
6+ Goals
10%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.96
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.4
X/1
17%
4.24
X/2
9%
7.0
X/X
12%
3.6
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
14%
5.98
2/X
6%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
45%
-0.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.2pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.4pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.3pp
37%
BTTS Yes
44%
-6.4pp
63%
BTTS No
56%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Athletic Bilbao v Real Sociedad — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 29%
+4% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.66/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.28
+13% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -12%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
272 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
22.3 Crosses 16.9
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.35 xG 1.25
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
283 Passes 344
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
30.09.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 3-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
15.04.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
14.01.2023 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 3-1 HT 2-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
05.08.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad HAZ
20.02.2022 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-0 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
31.10.2021 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
2-1
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.62 xG 1.29
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
237 Passes 263
67% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao edged past Real Sociedad 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 49% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 51%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.62 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 1.17 for Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?

Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad in the Spain - Primera Liga on 13/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 45%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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