CA Sarmiento 1-0 Union Santa Fe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 30 Sep 2024

CA Sarmiento
1-0 HT 0-0
Union Santa Fe
📅30/09/2024 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

CA Sarmiento vs Union Santa Fe Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.94
Draw
31%
2.83
Away
35%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
64%
1.41
Over 2.5
36%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.29
No
58%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
1.97
2-3 Goals
36%
1.85
4-5 Goals
16%
6.77
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.01
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
15.4
X/1
11%
5.81
X/2
12%
4.66
X/X
15%
3.26
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.69
2/X
7%
15.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Under 2.5 — 64% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
30%
+3.2pp
31%
Draw
32%
-0.6pp
35%
Away Win
38%
-2.6pp
64%
Under 2.5
67%
-3.7pp
36%
Over 2.5
33%
+3.7pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+2.2pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-2.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

CA Sarmiento v Union Santa Fe — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Santa Fe EU Bookmakers 42%
-1% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +3%
1.08/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.83
-1% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -12%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
248 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 74%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.9 Crosses 19.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

CA Sarmiento vs Union Santa Fe Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CA Sarmiento
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Union Santa Fe
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.94 xG 0.96
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
179 Passes 283
64% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 29
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.03.2024 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
08.10.2023 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 1-0 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
15.05.2023 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 0-2 HT 0-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
09.09.2022 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 1-0 HT 0-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
27.02.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 2-1 HT 2-1 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ
16.10.2021 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 3-4 HT 1-1 Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe ARJ

CA Sarmiento 1-0 Union Santa Fe — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CA Sarmiento
1-0
AWAY Union Santa Fe
1.46 xG 0.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
182 Passes 359
63% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH CA Sarmiento vs Union Santa Fe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CA Sarmiento squeezed past Union Santa Fe 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 31% / 35% — and on the day CA Sarmiento made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, CA Sarmiento had 39% of the ball to Union Santa Fe's 61%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.46 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Santa Fe led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for CA Sarmiento and 1.50 for Union Santa Fe.

What was the final score of CA Sarmiento vs Union Santa Fe?

CA Sarmiento 1-0 Union Santa Fe in the Argentina - Premier League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CA Sarmiento vs Union Santa Fe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Union Santa Fe win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split CA Sarmiento 34%, draw 31%, Union Santa Fe 35%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Union Santa Fe) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Union Santa Fe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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