Siroki Brijeg 3-3 FK Sarajevo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
16%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.5pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Siroki Brijeg EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Sarajevo EU Bookmakers 57%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
0.98/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/0.97
+9% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -41%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
296 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Siroki Brijeg
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FK Sarajevo
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.02.2024 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 1-3 HT 0-0 Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg BOSN
22.09.2023 Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg 1-0 HT 0-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
29.04.2023 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 2-1 HT 1-1 Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg BOSN
05.03.2023 Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg 1-3 HT 0-2 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
11.09.2022 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo 0-0 HT 0-0 Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg BOSN
14.05.2022 Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg 3-0 FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo BOSN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Siroki Brijeg
3-3
AWAY FK Sarajevo
39% Ball Possession 61%
5 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Siroki Brijeg and FK Sarajevo shared the points in a 3-3 draw. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was FK Sarajevo at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Siroki Brijeg had 39% of the ball to FK Sarajevo's 61%, shots finished 5-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Siroki Brijeg had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Siroki Brijeg and 1.00 for FK Sarajevo.

What was the final score of Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo?

Siroki Brijeg 3-3 FK Sarajevo in the Bosnia and Herzegovina - Premier League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Siroki Brijeg vs FK Sarajevo?

Before kick-off our model rated an FK Sarajevo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Siroki Brijeg 25%, draw 27%, FK Sarajevo 48%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FK Sarajevo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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