Homeboyz 0-1 Kariobangi Sharks — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 30 Sep 2024

📅30/09/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.38
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
35%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
73%
1.51
Over
27%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
32%
2.09
No
68%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
46%
2-3
36%
4-5
12%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 73%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
38%
-5.6pp
32%
Draw
29%
+3.1pp
35%
Away Win
32%
+2.5pp
73%
Under 2.5
62%
+10.9pp
27%
Over 2.5
38%
-10.9pp
32%
BTTS Yes
44%
-11.6pp
68%
BTTS No
56%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homeboyz EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Kariobangi Sharks EU Bookmakers 36%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
0.18/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.47/0.15
-77% / +79% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / +150%
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
305 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homeboyz
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Kariobangi Sharks
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
44% Ball Possession 55%
6 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 4
29.09.2024 Homeboyz Homeboyz 0-1 HT 0-0 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks KEN
29.10.2023 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks 1-0 Homeboyz Homeboyz KEN
08.01.2022 Kariobangi Sharks Kariobangi Sharks 0-1 HT 0-0 Homeboyz Homeboyz KEN
POST-MATCH Homeboyz vs Kariobangi Sharks
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kariobangi Sharks edged past Homeboyz 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 32% / 35% — and on the day Kariobangi Sharks made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (73%), no to both teams scoring (68%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kariobangi Sharks led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Homeboyz and 0.67 for Kariobangi Sharks.

What was the final score of Homeboyz vs Kariobangi Sharks?

Homeboyz 0-1 Kariobangi Sharks in the Kenya - Premier League on 30/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homeboyz vs Kariobangi Sharks?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kariobangi Sharks win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Homeboyz 33%, draw 32%, Kariobangi Sharks 35%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kariobangi Sharks), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Kariobangi Sharks) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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