Marsilya U19 3-5 Ajax U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.8
Draw
20%
3.45
Away
48%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.43
No
47%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
32%
-0.8pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.4pp
48%
Away Win
42%
+6.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
66%
-12.9pp
47%
BTTS No
34%
+12.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya U19 EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax U19 EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -15%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
341 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya U19
3-5
AWAY Ajax U19
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Marsilya U19 vs Ajax U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax U19 beat Marsilya U19 5-3 away from home. It was 3-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax U19 as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Marsilya U19 had 47% of the ball to Ajax U19's 53%, shots finished 13-11.

What was the final score of Marsilya U19 vs Ajax U19?

Marsilya U19 3-5 Ajax U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya U19 vs Ajax U19?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Marsilya U19 32%, draw 21%, Ajax U19 48%. The final score 3-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax U19), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax U19) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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