Benfica 3-0 Santa Clara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 30 Oct 2024

📅30/10/2024 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
60%
1.22
Draw
20%
5.28
Away
20%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.18
Over
56%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.4
No
49%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.25
2-3
44%
1.87
4-5
21%
3.0
6+
12%
9.22
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.25 — our 23% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.37
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
31.0
X/1
19%
3.22
X/2
5%
28.5
X/X
9%
8.33
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
10%
24.45
2/X
6%
31.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Benfica win — 60%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
60%
Home Win
78%
-17.5pp
20%
Draw
16%
+4.3pp
20%
Away Win
7%
+13.1pp
44%
Under 2.5
42%
+1.7pp
56%
Over 2.5
58%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
38%
+13.2pp
49%
BTTS No
62%
-13.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica The Market 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Clara The Market 9%
-10% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
2.77/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.14/1.81
-30% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +27%
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
448 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
36.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.0
24.0 Crosses 6.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Santa Clara
3.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.21 xG 0.75
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
534 Passes 247
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Benfica Benfica 4-1 HT 2-1 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
27.05.2023 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 2-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
21.01.2023 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-3 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POR
12.02.2022 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 0-1 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
11.09.2021 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-5 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
26.04.2021 Benfica Benfica 2-1 HT 1-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-0
AWAY Santa Clara
1.83 xG 0.48
75% Ball Possession 25%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
573 Passes 154
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
32 Box Touches 6
30 Crosses 5
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Santa Clara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica ran out comfortable winners over Santa Clara 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica had 75% of the ball to Santa Clara's 25%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 1.83 to 0.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.17 goals for Benfica and 0.50 for Santa Clara.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Santa Clara?

Benfica 3-0 Santa Clara in the Portugal - League Cup on 30/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Santa Clara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Benfica 60%, draw 20%, Santa Clara 20%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →