UD Logrones 1-3 Ponferradina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 30 Oct 2025

📅30/10/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.59
Over 2.5
44%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
26%
+4.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.6pp
43%
Away Win
45%
-2.6pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Logrones EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Ponferradina EU Bookmakers 49%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -64% / -64%
0.26/0.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.34/1.34
-76% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -76% / -20%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
240 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD Logrones
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Ponferradina
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.33 xG 0.90
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
288 Passes 288
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 0
30.03.2021 Ponferradina Ponferradina 2-2 HT 0-1 UD Logrones UD Logrones İS2
02.12.2020 UD Logrones UD Logrones 1-2 HT 0-1 Ponferradina Ponferradina İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Logrones
1-3
AWAY Ponferradina
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH UD Logrones vs Ponferradina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ponferradina saw off UD Logrones 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ponferradina as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, UD Logrones had 64% of the ball to Ponferradina's 36%, shots finished 11-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ponferradina led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for UD Logrones and 2.00 for Ponferradina.

What was the final score of UD Logrones vs Ponferradina?

UD Logrones 1-3 Ponferradina in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 30/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Logrones vs Ponferradina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ponferradina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split UD Logrones 31%, draw 27%, Ponferradina 43%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ponferradina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ponferradina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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