Ashton United 4-3 Basford United — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - Non League Premier, 30 Nov 2024)

Ashton United

4-3 HT 1-0

Basford United

📅30/11/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗

England - Non League Premier – 2024/2025

Ashton United vs Basford United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

51%

1.82

Draw

26%

3.94

Away

23%

3.34

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5 OUR CALL

52%

2.51

Over 2.5

48%

1.48

Both Teams to Score

Yes

52%

1.49

48%

2.44

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

27%

2-3 Goals

34%

4-5 Goals

25%

6+ Goals

14%

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

27%

1/2

1/X

X/1

12%

X/2

11%

X/X

12%

2/1

12%

2/2

2/X

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our call

Under 2.5 — 52% ✗

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

STRENGTH Home Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

51%

Home Win

51%

+0.3pp

25%

Draw

22%

+3.3pp

23%

Away Win

27%

-3.5pp

52%

Under 2.5

36%

+16.3pp

48%

Over 2.5

64%

-16.3pp

52%

BTTS Yes

63%

-11.5pp

48%

BTTS No

37%

+11.5pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ashton United v Basford United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Ashton United EU Bookmakers 55%

Head to Head

AWAY Basford United EU Bookmakers 30%

-1% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%

1.80/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.57

+4% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +4%

54% Ball Possession 46%

13 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Target 4

6 Corners 4

386 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 83%

– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –

– Crosses –

1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7

Ashton United vs Basford United Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Ashton United

3W-1D-0L

AWAY Basford United

1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25

51% Ball Possession 49%

13 Total Shots 10

5 Shots on Target 5

9 Corners 5

3 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

09.12.2023 Basford United

1-2 HT 0-1

Ashton United İNGNLP

15.08.2023 Ashton United

1-0 HT 0-0

Basford United İNGNLP

12.02.2022 Basford United

0-0 HT 0-0

Ashton United İNGNLP

06.11.2021 Ashton United

3-0 HT 1-0

Basford United İNGNLP

Ashton United 4-3 Basford United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Ashton United

4-3

AWAY Basford United

52% Ball Possession 48%

14 Total Shots 15

7 Shots on Target 8

5 Corners 7

POST-MATCH Ashton United vs Basford United

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ashton United squeezed past Basford United 4-3. Half-time: 1-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ashton United as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ashton United had 52% of the ball to Basford United's 48%, shots finished 14-15.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ashton United had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ashton United and 0.25 for Basford United.

What was the final score of Ashton United vs Basford United?

Ashton United 4-3 Basford United in the England - Non League Premier on 30/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ashton United vs Basford United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ashton United win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ashton United 51%, draw 25%, Basford United 23%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ashton United), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ashton United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

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