Como 2-0 Lecce — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 30 Dec 2024

Como
2-0 HT 0-0
Lecce
📅30/12/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.96
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
10%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 29% vs market 27.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.13
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
15.7
X/1
19%
3.83
X/2
9%
10.45
X/X
10%
4.85
2/1
12%
25.5
2/2
10%
8.68
2/X
10%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
57%
-6.5pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+5.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.1pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Como EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Lecce EU Bookmakers 21%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
1.76/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.38
-6% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +40%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
20.5 Crosses 17.3
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Como
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Lecce
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.20 xG 1.88
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
252 Passes 413
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 31
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.08.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-0 HT 1-0 Como Como İTK
05.02.2022 Como Como 1-1 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTB
29.08.2021 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 1-1 Como Como İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Como
2-0
AWAY Lecce
2.01 xG 0.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
421 Passes 289
86% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Como vs Lecce
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Como saw off Lecce 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Como as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Como had 57% of the ball to Lecce's 43%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.01 to 0.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lecce led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Como and 1.00 for Lecce.

What was the final score of Como vs Lecce?

Como 2-0 Lecce in the Italy - Serie A on 30/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Como vs Lecce?

Before kick-off our model rated a Como win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Como 51%, draw 25%, Lecce 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Como), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Como) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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