Atletico Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 31 Jan 2024

Atletico Madrid
2-1 HT 1-1
Rayo Vallecano
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.06
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.78
6+ Goals
12%
16.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.06 — our 29% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.1
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
15.85
X/1
16%
3.71
X/2
7%
10.1
X/X
8%
4.91
2/1
8%
24.7
2/2
11%
8.36
2/X
9%
16.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.1pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.0pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.66/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.42
+3% / +34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +2%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
18.1 Crosses 16.7
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.9

Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.62 xG 0.97
49% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
361 Passes 382
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.08.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-7 HT 0-3 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
09.04.2023 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-2 HT 0-2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
18.10.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-1 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
19.03.2022 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
02.01.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS1
16.02.2019 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
2-1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
1.05 xG 0.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
397 Passes 323
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid edged past Rayo Vallecano 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 54% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 46%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 1.05 to 0.44.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.33 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 52%, draw 24%, Rayo Vallecano 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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