Sumqayıt 2-3 Neftçi PFK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Cup, 31 Jan 2024

Sumqayıt
2-3 HT 0-3
Neftçi PFK
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Azerbaijan - Cup – 2025/2026

Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.32
Draw
36%
3.18
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.54
Over 2.5
41%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
14%
1/X
7%
X/1
7%
X/2
13%
X/X
22%
2/1
7%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
27%
-2.8pp
36%
Draw
28%
+8.2pp
40%
Away Win
45%
-5.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.9pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sumqayıt v Neftçi PFK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sumqayıt EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 49%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
0.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.00/0.00
-100% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / –
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
200 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sumqayıt
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Neftçi PFK
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 1-2 HT 1-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
02.09.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
08.04.2023 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 0-4 HT 0-1 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
05.02.2023 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-0 HT 0-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
05.11.2022 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 2-2 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
03.09.2022 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 1-0 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt AZERS
POST-MATCH Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK squeezed past Sumqayıt 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (24% / 36% / 40%) promised a tight game; Neftçi PFK found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sumqayıt and 2.17 for Neftçi PFK.

What was the final score of Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK?

Sumqayıt 2-3 Neftçi PFK in the Azerbaijan - Cup on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sumqayıt vs Neftçi PFK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sumqayıt 24%, draw 36%, Neftçi PFK 40%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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