Rio Ave 1-1 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 31 Jan 2024

Rio Ave
1-1 HT 0-0
Estoril
📅31/01/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Rio Ave vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.12
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
24%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.02
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.83
6+ Goals
11%
16.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.04
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
21%
4.72
X/2
8%
6.55
X/X
15%
4.31
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
9%
4.83
2/X
5%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
43%
+6.2pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
23%
Away Win
29%
-5.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rio Ave v Estoril — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rio Ave EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -20%
1.31/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.64
-21% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +2%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
21.7 Crosses 18.3
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Rio Ave vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rio Ave
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Estoril
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 1.17
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
346 Passes 249
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
18 Box Touches 14
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Estoril Estoril 2-0 HT 0-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
13.02.2023 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-0 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
19.08.2022 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 1-0 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR
12.01.2021 Rio Ave Rio Ave 1-2 HT 0-2 Estoril Estoril POK
30.03.2018 Rio Ave Rio Ave 2-0 HT 2-0 Estoril Estoril POR
04.11.2017 Estoril Estoril 0-2 HT 0-1 Rio Ave Rio Ave POR

Rio Ave 1-1 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rio Ave
1-1
AWAY Estoril
0.88 xG 0.82
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 3
435 Passes 325
85% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rio Ave vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rio Ave and Estoril couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Rio Ave at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rio Ave had 56% of the ball to Estoril's 44%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.88 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rio Ave had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rio Ave and 1.00 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Rio Ave vs Estoril?

Rio Ave 1-1 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rio Ave vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rio Ave win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Rio Ave 49%, draw 27%, Estoril 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Rio Ave) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rio Ave) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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