Sporting Braga 1-1 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 31 Jan 2024

📅31/01/2024 · 🕒23:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.37
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.43
Over 2.5
54%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.12
2-3 Goals
37%
1.96
4-5 Goals
26%
2.71
6+ Goals
14%
6.92
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.58
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
4%
19.65
X/1 EV+ ✗
28%
3.59
X/2
4%
16.45
X/X
11%
7.57
2/1
6%
20.75
2/2
7%
12.15
2/X
4%
19.9
Value flag · X/1 at 3.59 — our 28% vs market 21.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
69%
-5.7pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.8pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+4.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.0pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 16%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +20%
2.15/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.02
-10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -2%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
453 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
30.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
23.6 Crosses 15.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Chaves
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 1.12
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
371 Passes 254
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
31 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
19.08.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-4 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
02.04.2023 Chaves Chaves 1-2 HT 1-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
09.10.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Chaves Chaves POR
10.02.2019 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-1 HT 0-0 Chaves Chaves POR
31.08.2018 Chaves Chaves 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
18.03.2018 Chaves Chaves 1-4 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-1
AWAY Chaves
3.32 xG 0.55
70% Ball Possession 30%
26 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 1
588 Passes 219
87% Pass Accuracy 73%
47 Box Touches 7
39 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga and Chaves shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sporting Braga at 63% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 70% of the ball to Chaves's 30%, shots finished 26-7, expected goals 3.32 to 0.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.00 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Chaves?

Sporting Braga 1-1 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 31/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 63%, draw 19%, Chaves 18%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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