Leganes 0-1 Rayo Vallecano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 31 Jan 2025

Leganes
0-1 HT 0-0
Rayo Vallecano
📅31/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.03
No
55%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.28
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.95
6+ Goals
9%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.04
1/2
8%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.95
X/1
13%
6.36
X/2
17%
4.96
X/X
13%
3.63
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.44
2/X
9%
13.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.0pp
28%
Draw
31%
-3.0pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-2.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+2.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.1pp
55%
BTTS No
55%
+0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Leganes v Rayo Vallecano — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leganes EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 43%
+3% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -14%
0.98/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.50
-20% / +42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -17%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
16.9 Crosses 24.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4

Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leganes
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.76 xG 1.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
269 Passes 300
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Leganes Leganes İS1
27.07.2022 Leganes Leganes 1-2 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano HAZ
07.08.2021 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano HAZ
06.06.2021 Leganes Leganes 1-2 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2
03.06.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
10.05.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-1 Leganes Leganes İS2

Leganes 0-1 Rayo Vallecano — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leganes
0-1
AWAY Rayo Vallecano
0.95 xG 2.28
34% Ball Possession 66%
5 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 9
204 Passes 494
73% Pass Accuracy 89%
6 Box Touches 30
9 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano squeezed past Leganes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (32% / 28% / 40%) promised a tight game; Rayo Vallecano found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Leganes had 34% of the ball to Rayo Vallecano's 66%, shots finished 5-19, expected goals 0.95 to 2.28 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Rayo Vallecano's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Leganes and 1.67 for Rayo Vallecano.

What was the final score of Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano?

Leganes 0-1 Rayo Vallecano in the Spain - Primera Liga on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leganes vs Rayo Vallecano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Leganes 32%, draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rayo Vallecano), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →