Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Leganes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Sep 2024

Rayo Vallecano
1-1
Leganes
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Rayo Vallecano vs Leganes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.82
Draw
33%
3.04
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.4
No
59%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.04
2-3 Goals
36%
1.84
4-5 Goals
18%
6.39
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
16.1
X/1
18%
3.8
X/2
8%
9.09
X/X
13%
3.43
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
8%
8.52
2/X
11%
17.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
51%
-6.0pp
32%
Draw
30%
+2.9pp
22%
Away Win
19%
+3.1pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
-0.3pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
+0.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
38%
+3.3pp
59%
BTTS No
62%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rayo Vallecano v Leganes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rayo Vallecano EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Leganes EU Bookmakers 22%
-2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
1.58/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.25
+11% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +58%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
326 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 68%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
24.2 Crosses 15.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.1

Rayo Vallecano vs Leganes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rayo Vallecano
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Leganes
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.17 xG 0.85
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
300 Passes 242
76% Pass Accuracy 71%
16 Box Touches 18
21 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
27.07.2022 Leganes Leganes 1-2 HT 0-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano HAZ
07.08.2021 Leganes Leganes 1-1 HT 1-1 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano HAZ
06.06.2021 Leganes Leganes 1-2 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2
03.06.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 3-0 HT 0-0 Leganes Leganes İS2
10.05.2021 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 1-1 HT 0-1 Leganes Leganes İS2
02.12.2020 Leganes Leganes 1-0 HT 1-0 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano İS2

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Leganes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rayo Vallecano
1-1
AWAY Leganes
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
383 Passes 322
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Rayo Vallecano vs Leganes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rayo Vallecano and Leganes shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Rayo Vallecano at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (65%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Rayo Vallecano had 53% of the ball to Leganes's 47%, shots finished 15-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rayo Vallecano had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.83 for Leganes.

What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs Leganes?

Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Leganes in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rayo Vallecano vs Leganes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rayo Vallecano win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Rayo Vallecano 45%, draw 32%, Leganes 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Rayo Vallecano), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Rayo Vallecano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS1 More Spain - Primera Liga
28 Sep 2024
15:00 Getafe vs Deportivo Alaves Analysis →
19:30 Real Sociedad vs Valencia Analysis →
22:00 Osasuna vs Barcelona Analysis →