Osasuna 4-2 Barcelona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 28 Sep 2024

Osasuna
4-2 HT 2-0
Barcelona
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2024/2025

Osasuna vs Barcelona Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.69
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
42%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.21
Over 2.5
55%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.41
2-3 Goals
35%
1.89
4-5 Goals
25%
2.94
6+ Goals
15%
8.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.32
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.45
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
13%
9.05
X/2
12%
4.33
X/X
11%
5.54
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.26
2/X
8%
13.45
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.45 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
23%
+9.4pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.7pp
42%
Away Win
52%
-10.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
41%
+3.5pp
55%
Over 2.5
59%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osasuna v Barcelona — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osasuna EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Barcelona EU Bookmakers 56%
-8% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +18%
0.94/1.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.10
-23% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -17%
41% Ball Possession 59%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
271 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 481 · 85%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.7
24.4 Crosses 15.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.4

Osasuna vs Barcelona Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osasuna
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Barcelona
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.69 xG 2.18
32% Ball Possession 68%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
230 Passes 588
75% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 33
16 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.01.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
11.01.2024 Barcelona Barcelona 2-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İSSK
03.09.2023 Osasuna Osasuna 1-2 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
02.05.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1
08.11.2022 Osasuna Osasuna 1-2 HT 1-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
13.03.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 3-0 Osasuna Osasuna İS1

Osasuna 4-2 Barcelona — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osasuna
4-2
AWAY Barcelona
2.23 xG 0.83
25% Ball Possession 75%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
140 Passes 588
64% Pass Accuracy 87%
26 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osasuna vs Barcelona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osasuna saw off Barcelona 4-2. Half-time: 2-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Barcelona at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Osasuna had 25% of the ball to Barcelona's 75%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 2.23 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Osasuna and 2.00 for Barcelona.

What was the final score of Osasuna vs Barcelona?

Osasuna 4-2 Barcelona in the Spain - Primera Liga on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osasuna vs Barcelona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Osasuna 33%, draw 25%, Barcelona 42%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Barcelona) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Barcelona) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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