Neftçi PFK 1-0 Shamakhi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 31 Jan 2025

📅31/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.88
No
45%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.4pp
30%
Draw
25%
+4.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
49%
+6.1pp
45%
BTTS No
51%
-6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neftçi PFK EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Shamakhi EU Bookmakers 24%
+0% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
1.86/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.65
+15% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
294 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neftçi PFK
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Shamakhi
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.11.2024 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 2-2 HT 2-2 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
31.08.2024 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-0 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
12.03.2023 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
23.12.2022 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK 3-0 HT 1-0 Shamakhi Shamakhi AZERS
07.08.2022 Shamakhi Shamakhi 0-1 HT 0-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
09.04.2022 Shamakhi Shamakhi 1-2 HT 1-0 Neftçi PFK Neftçi PFK AZERS
POST-MATCH Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neftçi PFK squeezed past Shamakhi 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Neftçi PFK as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neftçi PFK had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Neftçi PFK and 0.50 for Shamakhi.

What was the final score of Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi?

Neftçi PFK 1-0 Shamakhi in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neftçi PFK vs Shamakhi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neftçi PFK win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Neftçi PFK 45%, draw 30%, Shamakhi 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neftçi PFK), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Neftçi PFK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
31 Jan 2025
15:00 Kapaz vs Sabah Analysis →