NAC Breda 1-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 31 Jan 2025

NAC Breda
1-1 HT 1-0
Heracles
📅31/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✓
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NAC Breda vs Heracles Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.95
Over 2.5
49%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.44
2-3 Goals
44%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
8%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.44 — our 26% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.3
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
12.85
X/1
15%
4.48
X/2
9%
9.24
X/X
14%
4.87
2/1
8%
23.4
2/2
12%
7.13
2/X
6%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-7.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+6.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.0pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v Heracles — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +9%
2.00/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.78
+25% / +99% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
390 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 73%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
20.1 Crosses 15.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9

NAC Breda vs Heracles Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Heracles
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.18 xG 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
343 Passes 313
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
18 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.11.2024 Heracles Heracles 2-0 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
12.05.2023 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-3 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL2
11.11.2022 Heracles Heracles 5-1 HT 3-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL2
06.04.2019 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
03.11.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 2-1 HT 1-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
07.02.2018 NAC Breda NAC Breda 6-1 HT 2-1 Heracles Heracles HOL

NAC Breda 1-1 Heracles — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-1
AWAY Heracles
1.17 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
390 Passes 358
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
34 Box Touches 21
26 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NAC Breda and Heracles shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was NAC Breda at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 52% of the ball to Heracles's 48%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.17 to 1.16.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heracles led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for NAC Breda and 2.17 for Heracles.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Heracles?

NAC Breda 1-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 31/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NAC Breda win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 46%, draw 27%, Heracles 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (NAC Breda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NAC Breda) ✓ Under 2.5
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