Alverca vs Estrela Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alverca v Estrela — Team-Based Signals
Alverca vs Estrela Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
Alverca 1-1 Estrela — Actual Match Statistics
Alverca and Estrela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.
Our pre-match lean was Alverca at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Alverca had 57% of the ball to Estrela's 43%, shots finished 8-5, expected goals 1.12 to 0.93.
What was the final score of Alverca vs Estrela?
Alverca 1-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alverca vs Estrela?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Alverca 50%, draw 26%, Estrela 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Alverca), BTTS No went the other way.