Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 31 Jan 2026

📅31/01/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
30%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
58%
1.67
Over 2.5
42%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.66
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
21.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.66 — our 32% vs market 31.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.24
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.15
X/1
15%
5.02
X/2
11%
6.74
X/X
13%
4.05
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
13%
5.14
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
42%
+0.8pp
27%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
30%
Away Win
29%
+1.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.6pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 32%
+13% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +14%
1.64/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.37
+15% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
295 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
18.6 Crosses 17.2
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Clara
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Estoril
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.83 xG 0.90
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
303 Passes 303
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 13
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.09.2025 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
18.01.2025 Santa Clara Santa Clara 2-3 HT 1-2 Estoril Estoril POR
11.08.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-4 HT 1-1 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
30.04.2023 Estoril Estoril 3-0 HT 2-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
14.11.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 3-1 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
10.04.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 2-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Clara
2-4
AWAY Estoril
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 5
269 Passes 230
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
POST-MATCH Santa Clara vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril saw off Santa Clara 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Santa Clara at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Santa Clara had 54% of the ball to Estoril's 46%, shots finished 14-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santa Clara had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Santa Clara and 1.33 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Santa Clara vs Estoril?

Santa Clara 2-4 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 31/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Clara vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Santa Clara 43%, draw 27%, Estoril 30%. The final score 2-4 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Santa Clara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR More Portugal - Premier League
31 Jan 2026
21:00 Rio Ave vs Arouca Analysis →
23:30 Alverca vs Estrela Analysis →