Estoril 1-4 Santa Clara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 Aug 2024

Estoril
1-4 HT 1-1
Santa Clara
📅11/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Estoril vs Santa Clara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
27%
2.94
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.54
Over 2.5
51%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.99
No
47%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.33
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
5.19
6+ Goals
10%
31.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.9
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
12%
13.9
X/1
15%
5.17
X/2
9%
5.48
X/X
9%
3.64
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
34.5
2/2
15%
4.24
2/X
5%
14.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 13% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.9pp
27%
Draw
30%
-3.7pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.1pp
49%
Under 2.5
61%
-11.6pp
51%
Over 2.5
39%
+11.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
46%
+6.5pp
47%
BTTS No
54%
-6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estoril v Santa Clara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 37%
+6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -24%
1.38/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.46
+23% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -26%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
283 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 78%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
19.5 Crosses 17.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7

Estoril vs Santa Clara Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Santa Clara
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.36 xG 1.40
53% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
347 Passes 287
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
30.04.2023 Estoril Estoril 3-0 HT 2-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
14.11.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 3-1 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
10.04.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 2-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
29.11.2021 Estoril Estoril 2-2 HT 1-1 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR

Estoril 1-4 Santa Clara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-4
AWAY Santa Clara
0.15 xG 2.72
41% Ball Possession 59%
4 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 3
262 Passes 402
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
7 Box Touches 24
7 Crosses 18
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Santa Clara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Clara swept aside Estoril 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Estoril at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Estoril had 41% of the ball to Santa Clara's 59%, shots finished 4-12, expected goals 0.15 to 2.72.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Santa Clara led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Estoril and 1.75 for Santa Clara.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Santa Clara?

Estoril 1-4 Santa Clara in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Santa Clara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Estoril 43%, draw 27%, Santa Clara 30%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Estoril) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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