Sporting Braga 1-1 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.47
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
21%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
22%
4.33
2-3 Goals
44%
1.88
4-5 Goals
22%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
8.92
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 22% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.78
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
17.4
X/1
17%
3.68
X/2
8%
13.2
X/X
12%
6.45
2/1
12%
21.45
2/2
7%
10.1
2/X
6%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-8.1pp
24%
Draw
21%
+3.0pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+5.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
2.06/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.31
-6% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -77% / +11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
384 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
25.0 Crosses 18.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
3.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.95 xG 1.29
55% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 12
10 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
368 Passes 266
80% Pass Accuracy 74%
40 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
28.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-1
AWAY Estrela
1.41 xG 0.69
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 4
418 Passes 189
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
35 Box Touches 6
35 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga and Estrela shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

This one beat our numbers. Sporting Braga carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 65% of the ball to Estrela's 35%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.41 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.50 goals for Sporting Braga and 1.00 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Estrela?

Sporting Braga 1-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 55%, draw 24%, Estrela 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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