Sporting Braga 3-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.6
2-3 Goals
42%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.87
6+ Goals
11%
8.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1.65
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
18.95
X/1 EV+ ✓
28%
3.59
X/2
9%
15.1
X/X
8%
7.01
2/1
6%
21.35
2/2
6%
11.5
2/X
5%
19.45
Value flag · X/1 at 3.59 — our 28% vs market 21.9%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-9.4pp
21%
Draw
19%
+1.7pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+7.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 17%
+1% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -32% / -32%
2.11/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.46
-7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -68% / -17%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
25.1 Crosses 16.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Estrela
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
3.37 xG 1.85
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 16
10 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 8
319 Passes 296
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 1
28.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
3-0
AWAY Estrela
2.53 xG 0.73
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 8
10 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 4
417 Passes 236
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
49 Box Touches 13
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga cruised past Estrela 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 59% of the ball to Estrela's 41%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 2.53 to 0.73.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Estrela?

Sporting Braga 3-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 57%, draw 21%, Estrela 22%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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