Estoril 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 2 Mar 2024

📅02/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
34%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.91
Over 2.5
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.68
No
55%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.46
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.45
6+ Goals
9%
13.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.46 — our 33% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.12
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
13%
6.07
X/2
11%
5.26
X/X
14%
4.6
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
17%
3.35
2/X
6%
12.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.3pp
34%
Away Win
39%
-5.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
56%
-10.2pp
55%
BTTS No
44%
+10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 43%
+6% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +1%
1.34/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.28
+30% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
19.1 Crosses 19.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.84 xG 1.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
296 Passes 328
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
01.10.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 0-2 Estoril Estoril POR
04.02.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
14.08.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
23.01.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR
13.08.2021 Estoril Estoril 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2018 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-3
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
2.09 xG 0.39
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
357 Passes 195
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 6
27 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes got the better of Estoril 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Vitoria Guimaraes made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estoril had 62% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 38%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.09 to 0.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Estoril.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Estoril and 1.83 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Estoril 1-3 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 02/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Estoril 39%, draw 27%, Vitoria Guimaraes 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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