Liverpool 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 31 Mar 2024

Liverpool
2-1 HT 1-1
Brighton & Hove Albion
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.33
Draw
18%
4.95
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
3.17
Over 2.5
63%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.55
No
45%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
8.25
2-3 Goals
36%
2.34
4-5 Goals
27%
2.38
6+ Goals
18%
4.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.52
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
5%
19.7
X/1
19%
3.87
X/2
9%
17.65
X/X
7%
9.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
17.9
2/2
7%
11.2
2/X
6%
19.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 17.9 — our 12% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
70%
-8.6pp
18%
Draw
17%
+1.4pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.1pp
37%
Under 2.5
28%
+8.5pp
63%
Over 2.5
72%
-8.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-5.0pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Liverpool v Brighton & Hove Albion — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liverpool EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +19%
2.43/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.53
+14% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +33%
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
467 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
40.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
24.2 Crosses 14.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liverpool
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.60 xG 1.44
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
407 Passes 410
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-2 HT 1-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
29.01.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool FAK
14.01.2023 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 HT 0-0 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
01.10.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 3-3 HT 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP
12.03.2022 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion 0-2 HT 0-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
30.10.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 2-2 HT 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton & Hove Albion İNP

Liverpool 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liverpool
2-1
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
2.83 xG 0.45
54% Ball Possession 46%
30 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
521 Passes 414
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
66 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool nicked a narrow win over Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Liverpool had 54% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 46%, shots finished 30-9, expected goals 2.83 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Liverpool's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brighton & Hove Albion led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Liverpool and 2.00 for Brighton & Hove Albion.

What was the final score of Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Liverpool 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion in the England - Premier League on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Liverpool 62%, draw 18%, Brighton & Hove Albion 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
31 Mar 2024
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