Greuther Fürth 1-1 Hamburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 31 Mar 2024

Greuther Fürth
1-1 HT 0-0
Hamburg
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Greuther Fürth vs Hamburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
39%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.29
Over 2.5
53%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
25%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
4.33
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
22.7
1/X
5%
12.5
X/1
12%
6.93
X/2
15%
5.16
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
16%
2.87
2/X
7%
12.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
31%
+7.0pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.6pp
39%
Away Win
43%
-4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
40%
+7.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
60%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-12.0pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+12.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Greuther Fürth v Hamburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Hamburg EU Bookmakers 48%
+8% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -9%
1.51/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.56
+20% / +70% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -18%
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 79%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
18.7 Crosses 19.1
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4

Greuther Fürth vs Hamburg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Hamburg
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.08 xG 1.63
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
330 Passes 352
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.10.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 2-0 HT 2-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
20.05.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 2-1 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
09.11.2022 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
13.02.2021 Hamburg Hamburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
17.10.2020 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-1 HT 0-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
17.05.2020 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-2 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2

Greuther Fürth 1-1 Hamburg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
1-1
AWAY Hamburg
0.23 xG 1.84
38% Ball Possession 62%
4 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
296 Passes 521
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
13 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Hamburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth and Hamburg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 38% of the ball to Hamburg's 62%, shots finished 4-16, expected goals 0.23 to 1.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hamburg led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Greuther Fürth and 1.17 for Hamburg.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Hamburg?

Greuther Fürth 1-1 Hamburg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Hamburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 38%, draw 23%, Hamburg 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hamburg), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hamburg) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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