St. Pauli 2-1 Paderborn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.1
Over 2.5
54%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.01
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
10.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.19
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.65
X/1
15%
4.06
X/2
9%
9.26
X/X
13%
5.62
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
15%
6.77
2/X
6%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-12.4pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.6pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+8.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Paderborn EU Bookmakers 25%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
1.60/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.53
+5% / +60% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +26%
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
404 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 72%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
21.2 Crosses 12.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Paderborn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.31 xG 1.53
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
353 Passes 387
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 22
19 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
21.10.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
03.03.2023 Paderborn Paderborn 1-2 HT 0-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
27.08.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
05.02.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 2-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
21.08.2021 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
15.03.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-2 HT 0-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
2-1
AWAY Paderborn
1.42 xG 0.91
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 3
492 Passes 313
89% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 20
8 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Paderborn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli edged past Paderborn 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had St. Pauli as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, St. Pauli had 58% of the ball to Paderborn's 42%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.42 to 0.91.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paderborn led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for St. Pauli and 2.00 for Paderborn.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Paderborn?

St. Pauli 2-1 Paderborn in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Paderborn?

Before kick-off our model rated a St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 42%, draw 27%, Paderborn 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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