Cumbaya vs El Nacional Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Cumbaya v El Nacional — Team-Based Signals
Cumbaya vs El Nacional Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-2
Cumbaya
EKV1
2-0
HT 2-0
El Nacional
EKV1
0-0
HT 0-0
El Nacional
EKV2
2-1
HT 1-0
Cumbaya
EKV2
1-1
HT 1-1
El Nacional
EKV2
2-0
HT 0-0
Cumbaya
EKV2
Cumbaya 1-0 El Nacional — Actual Match Statistics
Cumbaya squeezed past El Nacional 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was El Nacional at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Cumbaya had 51% of the ball to El Nacional's 49%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 0.97 to 1.26.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Nacional led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cumbaya and 1.17 for El Nacional.
What was the final score of Cumbaya vs El Nacional?
Cumbaya 1-0 El Nacional in the Ecuador - Premier on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Cumbaya vs El Nacional?
Before kick-off our model rated an El Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Cumbaya 32%, draw 27%, El Nacional 42%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.