Heerenveen (K) 2-1 Ajax (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie, 31 Mar 2024

📅31/03/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 0-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
12.23
Draw
17%
7.78
Away
67%
1.1
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
4.0
Over 2.5
61%
1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
11%
1/X
4%
X/1
3%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
37%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
5%
+10.5pp
17%
Draw
9%
+7.9pp
67%
Away Win
85%
-18.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
22%
+17.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
78%
-17.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heerenveen (K) EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax (K) EU Bookmakers 91%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
0.00/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.33/0.99
-100% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -61%
33% Ball Possession 67%
7 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
197 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 531 · 87%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heerenveen (K)
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Ajax (K)
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 5.00
20% Ball Possession 80%
2 Total Shots 32
1 Shots on Target 18
3 Corners 10
14.02.2024 Ajax (K) Ajax (K) 5-1 HT 3-0 Heerenveen (K) Heerenveen (K) HOLK1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heerenveen (K)
2-1
AWAY Ajax (K)
26% Ball Possession 74%
6 Total Shots 32
5 Shots on Target 11
0 Corners 13
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Heerenveen (K) vs Ajax (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heerenveen (K) nicked a narrow win over Ajax (K) 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Ajax (K) at 67% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Heerenveen (K) had 26% of the ball to Ajax (K)'s 74%, shots finished 6-32.

What was the final score of Heerenveen (K) vs Ajax (K)?

Heerenveen (K) 2-1 Ajax (K) in the Netherlands - Women's Eredivisie on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heerenveen (K) vs Ajax (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Heerenveen (K) 16%, draw 17%, Ajax (K) 67%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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