Monterrey 0-2 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 31 Mar 2024

Monterrey
0-2 HT 0-0
Guadalajara
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Monterrey vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.75
No
49%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
3.48
2-3 Goals
45%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
9%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 24% vs market 23.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
22%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.0pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Monterrey v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 26%
-3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +0%
1.86/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.35
+3% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +18%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
313 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 79%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.4 Crosses 15.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4

Monterrey vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.27 xG 0.88
50% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
295 Passes 293
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.09.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
08.01.2023 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.08.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
14.04.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-3 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
22.08.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
22.04.2021 Monterrey Monterrey 1-2 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Monterrey 0-2 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
0-2
AWAY Guadalajara
1.08 xG 1.04
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
301 Passes 542
80% Pass Accuracy 90%
17 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara beat Monterrey 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Monterrey at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Monterrey had 39% of the ball to Guadalajara's 61%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 1.08 to 1.04.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monterrey and 1.00 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Guadalajara?

Monterrey 0-2 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 47%, draw 27%, Guadalajara 26%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Monterrey) ✗ BTTS Yes
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