Pachuca 2-3 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 31 Mar 2024

Pachuca
2-3 HT 1-3
Toluca
📅31/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
36%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.29
Over 2.5
58%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.49
No
42%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.71
2-3 Goals
38%
1.91
4-5 Goals
27%
2.84
6+ Goals
13%
7.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
16%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
36%
Away Win
33%
+2.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
40%
+1.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
60%
-1.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
63%
-5.4pp
42%
BTTS No
37%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Pachuca v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 37%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -12%
1.48/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.55
+20% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -18%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
327 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
19.2 Crosses 16.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Pachuca vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Toluca
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.65 xG 1.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
17 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
265 Passes 408
77% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Toluca Toluca 5-0 HT 2-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
20.02.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-2 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
31.10.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 3-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
28.10.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-5 HT 0-4 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
28.08.2022 Toluca Toluca 1-4 HT 0-2 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
13.03.2022 Toluca Toluca 0-3 HT 0-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK

Pachuca 2-3 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
2-3
AWAY Toluca
1.60 xG 1.55
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
317 Passes 305
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca nicked a narrow win over Pachuca 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Toluca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Pachuca had 51% of the ball to Toluca's 49%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 1.60 to 1.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Pachuca and 1.67 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs Toluca?

Pachuca 2-3 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 31/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 39%, draw 25%, Toluca 36%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Pachuca) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Pachuca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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