Vasco da Gama 2-1 Santos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 31 Mar 2025

📅31/03/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.9
No
58%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
17%
4.61
6+ Goals
8%
24.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 36% vs market 32.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.33
1/2
9%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.07
X/2
9%
6.65
X/X
14%
3.94
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
12%
5.09
2/X
7%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
-0.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
29%
Away Win
29%
+0.5pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+1.8pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-1.8pp
42%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.8pp
58%
BTTS No
51%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Santos EU Bookmakers 32%
+9% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.27/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.16
+4% / +76% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / +14%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 82%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
20.6 Crosses 21.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vasco da Gama
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Santos
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.33 xG 1.62
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
295 Passes 306
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 22
23 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.10.2023 Santos Santos 4-1 HT 3-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
14.05.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-1 Santos Santos BR1
20.12.2020 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 1-0 HT 1-0 Santos Santos BR1
03.09.2020 Santos Santos 2-2 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
05.10.2019 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 0-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR1
12.05.2019 Santos Santos 3-0 HT 2-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vasco da Gama
2-1
AWAY Santos
1.35 xG 1.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
405 Passes 348
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
18 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vasco da Gama vs Santos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vasco da Gama squeezed past Santos 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vasco da Gama as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vasco da Gama had 53% of the ball to Santos's 47%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 1.35 to 1.96 — on chances, Santos could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Santos led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Vasco da Gama and 1.83 for Santos.

What was the final score of Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

Vasco da Gama 2-1 Santos in the Brazil - Serie A on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vasco da Gama win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Vasco da Gama 42%, draw 29%, Santos 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vasco da Gama) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vasco da Gama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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31 Mar 2025
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