Bahia 1-1 Corinthians — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 31 Mar 2025

Bahia
1-1 HT 1-0
Corinthians
📅31/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2025

Bahia vs Corinthians Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.82
Draw
31%
3.28
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.96
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
4.14
6+ Goals
8%
19.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 33% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.46
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
14%
4.4
X/2
11%
8.84
X/X
13%
4.42
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
10%
7.3
2/X
11%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
51%
-9.1pp
31%
Draw
27%
+3.5pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+5.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+4.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-4.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.7pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Corinthians — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Corinthians EU Bookmakers 25%
+1% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +4%
1.46/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.30
+6% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +17%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 79%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
22.2 Crosses 16.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4

Bahia vs Corinthians Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Corinthians
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.29 xG 1.05
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
380 Passes 429
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.12.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 3-0 HT 2-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
21.07.2024 Bahia Bahia 0-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
25.11.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-5 HT 0-3 Bahia Bahia BR1
23.07.2023 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
06.10.2021 Corinthians Corinthians 3-1 HT 1-1 Bahia Bahia BR1
20.06.2021 Bahia Bahia 0-0 HT 0-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1

Bahia 1-1 Corinthians — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-1
AWAY Corinthians
1.41 xG 0.51
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
357 Passes 525
87% Pass Accuracy 91%
26 Box Touches 6
14 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Corinthians
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bahia and Corinthians couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Bahia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

On the day, Bahia had 42% of the ball to Corinthians's 58%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.41 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Corinthians led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bahia and 1.33 for Corinthians.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Corinthians?

Bahia 1-1 Corinthians in the Brazil - Serie A on 31/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Corinthians?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Bahia 42%, draw 31%, Corinthians 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bahia), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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