Sagan Tosu 0-1 FC Tokyo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 31 May 2024

📅31/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.84
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
40%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 29% vs market 20.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.5
1/2
6%
24.45
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
11%
6.76
X/2
12%
5.02
X/X
12%
4.96
2/1
6%
31.0
2/2
21%
2.96
2/X
8%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
32%
+2.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
40%
Away Win
42%
-2.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.8pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sagan Tosu EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Tokyo EU Bookmakers 46%
+3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -13%
1.11/1.59 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.88
-7% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / +32%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 79%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.1 Crosses 17.3
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sagan Tosu
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.24 xG 1.36
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
363 Passes 383
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.05.2024 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JLK
23.09.2023 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 3-2 HT 0-2 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
01.04.2023 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
26.06.2022 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 5-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
08.05.2022 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 0-1 HT 0-0 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu JAP
09.08.2021 Sagan Tosu Sagan Tosu 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sagan Tosu
0-1
AWAY FC Tokyo
1.06 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
390 Passes 424
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 17
32 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sagan Tosu vs FC Tokyo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Tokyo nicked a narrow win over Sagan Tosu 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 27% / 40% — and on the day FC Tokyo made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Sagan Tosu had 49% of the ball to FC Tokyo's 51%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.06 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sagan Tosu had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Sagan Tosu and 0.67 for FC Tokyo.

What was the final score of Sagan Tosu vs FC Tokyo?

Sagan Tosu 0-1 FC Tokyo in the Japan - J1 League on 31/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sagan Tosu vs FC Tokyo?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Tokyo win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sagan Tosu 34%, draw 27%, FC Tokyo 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Tokyo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FC Tokyo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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