Nizhny Novgorod 1-3 FC Sochi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - FNL, 31 May 2025

📅31/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
35%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.86
Over
46%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.36
2-3
41%
1.84
4-5
23%
3.68
6+
9%
14.7
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.36 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.27
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
10%
14.0
X/1
10%
6.08
X/2
10%
5.22
X/X
14%
4.87
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
19%
3.38
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.1pp
31%
Draw
27%
+4.4pp
35%
Away Win
40%
-4.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.4pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nizhny Novgorod The Market 37%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Sochi The Market 43%
-5% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.15/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.35
+7% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
286 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 77%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
25.0 Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nizhny Novgorod
1W-1D-0L
AWAY FC Sochi
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.23 xG 0.98
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
345 Passes 193
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
19 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2025 FC Sochi FC Sochi 1-2 HT 1-1 Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod RUS1
01.07.2022 Nizhny Novgorod Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 FC Sochi FC Sochi HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nizhny Novgorod
1-3
AWAY FC Sochi
1.93 xG 2.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
293 Passes 223
78% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Sochi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Sochi beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 31% / 35% — and on the day FC Sochi made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nizhny Novgorod had 54% of the ball to FC Sochi's 46%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.93 to 2.67.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Nizhny Novgorod had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nizhny Novgorod and 1.00 for FC Sochi.

What was the final score of Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Sochi?

Nizhny Novgorod 1-3 FC Sochi in the Russia - FNL on 31/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nizhny Novgorod vs FC Sochi?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Sochi win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Nizhny Novgorod 34%, draw 31%, FC Sochi 35%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Sochi) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Sochi) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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