Gremio 0-1 Bolivar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 31 Jul 2026

📅31/07/2026 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.49
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
18%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.81
No
41%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.92
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
15%
9.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.81
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
16.05
X/1
14%
3.97
X/2
8%
12.15
X/X
7%
6.18
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.1
2/2
5%
9.83
2/X
6%
18.15
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.1 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
63%
-0.8pp
20%
Draw
21%
-1.2pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+2.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
+0.1pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
-0.1pp
59%
BTTS Yes
51%
+7.9pp
41%
BTTS No
49%
-7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gremio EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Bolivar EU Bookmakers 19%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +46% / +46%
1.37/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.67
-8% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
358 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 75%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
25.8 Crosses 8.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gremio
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Bolivar
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.65 xG 4.37
13 Total Shots 31
5 Shots on Target 10
6 Corners 6
262 Passes 366
11 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 0
24.07.2026 Bolivar Bolivar 3-2 HT 2-2 Gremio Gremio CSA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gremio
0-1
AWAY Bolivar
2.20 xG 1.42
31 Total Shots 19
11 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 1
484 Passes 226
40 Box Touches 14
32 Crosses 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Gremio vs Bolivar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bolivar edged past Gremio 1-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Gremio carried 62% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, shots finished 31-19, expected goals 2.20 to 1.42 — on chances, Gremio could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Gremio vs Bolivar?

Gremio 0-1 Bolivar in the Copa Sudamericana on 31/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gremio vs Bolivar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Gremio 62%, draw 20%, Bolivar 18%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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