Guangxi Baoyun 3-2 Qingdao Red Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.78
Over 2.5
35%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.03
No
64%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
3.91
6+ Goals
7%
17.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.98 — our 37% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
16%
2/1
4%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
59%
-6.3pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+4.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
52%
+12.2pp
35%
Over 2.5
48%
-12.2pp
36%
BTTS Yes
45%
-9.1pp
64%
BTTS No
55%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangxi Baoyun EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions EU Bookmakers 21%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.08/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.54/1.33
+0% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -23%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
297 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 231 · 69%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
18.4 Crosses 14.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangxi Baoyun
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.44 xG 0.43
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
365 Passes 155
78% Pass Accuracy 59%
21 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 3
14.04.2024 Qingdao Red Lions Qingdao Red Lions 2-3 HT 1-1 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangxi Baoyun
3-2
AWAY Qingdao Red Lions
1.94 xG 1.57
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
295 Passes 259
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guangxi Baoyun vs Qingdao Red Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangxi Baoyun squeezed past Qingdao Red Lions 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guangxi Baoyun as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guangxi Baoyun had 50% of the ball to Qingdao Red Lions's 50%, shots finished 14-17, expected goals 1.94 to 1.57.

What was the final score of Guangxi Baoyun vs Qingdao Red Lions?

Guangxi Baoyun 3-2 Qingdao Red Lions in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangxi Baoyun vs Qingdao Red Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangxi Baoyun win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Guangxi Baoyun 53%, draw 26%, Qingdao Red Lions 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guangxi Baoyun) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guangxi Baoyun) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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