Defensa y Justicia 1-0 Barracas Central — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.75
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.8
Over 2.5
42%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.14
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.28
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.25
X/1
17%
4.03
X/2
6%
9.26
X/X
16%
4.66
2/1
6%
24.85
2/2
13%
7.35
2/X
5%
15.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-8.8pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
52%
+6.5pp
42%
Over 2.5
48%
-6.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.8pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Barracas Central EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +1%
1.66/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.28
+11% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
348 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 71%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
22.0 Crosses 14.9
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Defensa y Justicia
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Barracas Central
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.79 xG 0.73
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 6
226 Passes 207
64% Pass Accuracy 62%
18 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
24.04.2023 Barracas Central Barracas Central 0-2 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
18.08.2022 Barracas Central Barracas Central 3-1 HT 3-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Defensa y Justicia
1-0
AWAY Barracas Central
0.38 xG 0.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
129 Passes 199
52% Pass Accuracy 58%
11 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Defensa y Justicia vs Barracas Central
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Defensa y Justicia nicked a narrow win over Barracas Central 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Defensa y Justicia as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Defensa y Justicia had 41% of the ball to Barracas Central's 59%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 0.38 to 0.80 — the balance of chances actually favoured Barracas Central.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Defensa y Justicia and 1.50 for Barracas Central.

What was the final score of Defensa y Justicia vs Barracas Central?

Defensa y Justicia 1-0 Barracas Central in the Argentina - Premier League on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Defensa y Justicia vs Barracas Central?

Before kick-off our model rated a Defensa y Justicia win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Defensa y Justicia 45%, draw 30%, Barracas Central 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Defensa y Justicia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Defensa y Justicia) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ARJ More Argentina - Premier League
31 Aug 2024
01:00 CA Sarmiento vs Lanus Analysis →
03:00 Union Santa Fe vs Deportivo Riestra Analysis →
21:00 Newells Old Boys vs Belgrano Cordoba Analysis →