AGF Aarhus 4-1 FC Fredericia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 31 Aug 2025

📅31/08/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.45
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
25%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.7
2-3 Goals
37%
1.94
4-5 Goals
23%
2.85
6+ Goals
13%
7.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.73
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
16.2
X/1
23%
3.99
X/2
10%
13.0
X/X
9%
6.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
19.9
2/2
11%
10.2
2/X
4%
18.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.9 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-9.9pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.2pp
26%
Away Win
16%
+9.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
+0.2pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Fredericia EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +69% / +69%
1.96/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.57
-6% / +59% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +90% /
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
368 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 77%
26.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.0
26.9 Crosses 5.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AGF Aarhus
0W-0D-2L
AWAY FC Fredericia
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
01.12.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-1 HT 0-1 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia HAZ
21.09.2017 FC Fredericia FC Fredericia 1-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AGF Aarhus
4-1
AWAY FC Fredericia
3.40 xG 0.99
64% Ball Possession 36%
30 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
551 Passes 297
90% Pass Accuracy 84%
53 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH AGF Aarhus vs FC Fredericia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus cruised past FC Fredericia 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, AGF Aarhus had 64% of the ball to FC Fredericia's 36%, shots finished 30-9, expected goals 3.40 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, FC Fredericia led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for AGF Aarhus and 1.00 for FC Fredericia.

What was the final score of AGF Aarhus vs FC Fredericia?

AGF Aarhus 4-1 FC Fredericia in the Denmark - Süperlig on 31/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AGF Aarhus vs FC Fredericia?

Before kick-off our model rated a AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split AGF Aarhus 55%, draw 20%, FC Fredericia 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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