Birmingham 2-1 Rotherham United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 1 Feb 2025

Birmingham
2-1 HT 0-1
Rotherham United
📅01/02/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - 1st Division – 2024/2025

Birmingham vs Rotherham United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.06
No
57%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.68
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
18.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.68 — our 33% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.06
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
16.25
X/1
17%
3.84
X/2
8%
10.55
X/X
10%
4.81
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
9%
9.37
2/X
8%
18.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
58%
-9.0pp
28%
Draw
24%
+3.8pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.8pp
43%
BTTS Yes
44%
-1.2pp
57%
BTTS No
56%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham v Rotherham United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Rotherham United EU Bookmakers 21%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.47/0.62 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.31
-15% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / +150%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
299 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 68%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
24.0 Crosses 18.3
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.3

Birmingham vs Rotherham United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Rotherham United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.28 xG 1.61
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
241 Passes 172
67% Pass Accuracy 62%
22 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2024 Rotherham United Rotherham United 0-2 HT 0-2 Birmingham Birmingham İN1
02.12.2023 Birmingham Birmingham 0-0 HT 0-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İNCL
11.03.2023 Birmingham Birmingham 2-0 HT 2-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İNCL
27.08.2022 Rotherham United Rotherham United 2-0 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
18.04.2021 Rotherham United Rotherham United 0-1 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
26.09.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 0-0 Rotherham United Rotherham United İNCL

Birmingham 2-1 Rotherham United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
2-1
AWAY Rotherham United
2.66 xG 0.80
69% Ball Possession 31%
23 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
381 Passes 124
82% Pass Accuracy 58%
39 Box Touches 8
33 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Rotherham United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Birmingham squeezed past Rotherham United 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Birmingham as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Birmingham had 69% of the ball to Rotherham United's 31%, shots finished 23-7, expected goals 2.66 to 0.80 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Birmingham's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Birmingham had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Birmingham and 0.50 for Rotherham United.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Rotherham United?

Birmingham 2-1 Rotherham United in the England - 1st Division on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Rotherham United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 49%, draw 28%, Rotherham United 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Birmingham) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Birmingham) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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