Tondela vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tondela v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
Tondela vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Tondela
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Tondela
POR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Tondela
PORLC
Tondela 2-0 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
Tondela beat Penafiel 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Tondela had 44% of the ball to Penafiel's 56%, shots finished 14-5, expected goals 1.28 to 0.23.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Tondela and 1.00 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of Tondela vs Penafiel?
Tondela 2-0 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 01/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tondela vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Tondela 41%, draw 31%, Penafiel 28%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.