Penafiel vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v Tondela — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-2
HT 0-1
Tondela
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Tondela
POR2
0-1
HT 0-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Tondela
PORLC
2-2
HT 0-1
Tondela
POK
Penafiel 2-2 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel and Tondela couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.
Our pre-match split (37% / 28% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Penafiel had 56% of the ball to Tondela's 44%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.50 to 2.20.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Penafiel and 0.67 for Tondela.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs Tondela?
Penafiel 2-2 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Tondela?
Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 37%, draw 28%, Tondela 35%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.