Mafra 2-2 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 25 Aug 2024

📅25/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.75
Over 2.5
45%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
3.96
6+ Goals
9%
18.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.94 — our 31% vs market 28.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
53%
+1.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
47%
-1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.0pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mafra EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 38%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +12%
1.44/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.17/1.24
-1% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / +86%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.9 Crosses 9.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mafra
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Portimonense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
38% Ball Possession 62%
6 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.01.2022 Portimonense Portimonense 2-4 HT 1-3 Mafra Mafra POK
06.09.2015 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mafra
2-2
AWAY Portimonense
0.78 xG 1.18
53% Ball Possession 47%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
315 Passes 282
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mafra vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mafra and Portimonense couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (37% / 25% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mafra had 53% of the ball to Portimonense's 47%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.78 to 1.18.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Mafra and 2.00 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Mafra vs Portimonense?

Mafra 2-2 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 25/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mafra vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Portimonense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mafra 37%, draw 25%, Portimonense 38%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Portimonense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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